Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
### Dane
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 1098 | 19468 | 42 | 6 | 273 | 318 |
| September 12 2020 | 1171 | 19766 | 42 | 6 | 333 | 381 |
| September 13 2020 | 1232 | 20082 | 43 | 6 | 372 | 431 |
| September 14 2020 | 1259 | 20176 | 43 | 6 | 377 | 458 |
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| September 17 2020 | 1398 | 20641 | 45 | 6 | 421 | 538 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.7% | 7 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 9.6 | 20.9% | 88 | 0.65% | 123 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 29.0 | 60.3% | 254 | 1.21% | 318 | 1.52% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 2.7 | 5.2% | 22 | 0.16% | 26 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 1.9 | 3.8% | 16 | 0.15% | 21 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.3 | 3.1% | 13 | 0.1% | 14 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.3 | 3.8% | 16 | 0.14% | 19 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 1.2% | 5 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 62 | 48.3 | 100% | 421 | 0.4% | 538 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 403 | 12847 | 17 | 0 | 53 | 72 |
| September 12 2020 | 409 | 12908 | 17 | 0 | 55 | 67 |
| September 13 2020 | 418 | 12993 | 17 | 0 | 54 | 73 |
| September 14 2020 | 420 | 13036 | 17 | 0 | 49 | 73 |
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| September 17 2020 | 447 | 13295 | 18 | 0 | 65 | 83 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 394 | 7922 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 25 |
| September 12 2020 | 395 | 7929 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| September 13 2020 | 396 | 7931 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 26 |
| September 14 2020 | 398 | 8017 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| September 17 2020 | 405 | 8249 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 1523 | 22407 | 39 | 2 | 321 | 390 |
| September 12 2020 | 1625 | 22558 | 39 | 2 | 417 | 469 |
| September 13 2020 | 1754 | 22560 | 39 | 2 | 515 | 577 |
| September 14 2020 | 1799 | 22561 | 40 | 2 | 513 | 617 |
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| September 17 2020 | 2121 | 23609 | 41 | 2 | 784 | 882 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.5% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 40 | 36.3 | 37.6% | 295 | 1.78% | 316 | 1.91% |
| 20-29 | 60 | 48.1 | 48.3% | 379 | 1.78% | 435 | 2.04% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.7 | 2.8% | 22 | 0.16% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.9 | 3.8% | 30 | 0.22% | 34 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 2.1 | 2.4% | 19 | 0.13% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 2.4% | 19 | 0.13% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.1 | 2% | 16 | 0.12% | 19 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 110 | 96.6 | 100% | 784 | 0.66% | 882 | 0.75% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 7254 | 172750 | 343 | 41 | 1734 | 1924 |
| September 12 2020 | 7389 | 173348 | 343 | 41 | 1825 | 2002 |
| September 13 2020 | 7622 | 174239 | 344 | 41 | 1983 | 2196 |
| September 14 2020 | 7846 | 174544 | 345 | 41 | 2047 | 2417 |
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| September 17 2020 | 8242 | 179874 | 349 | 41 | 2034 | 2603 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.1 | 1% | 20 | 0.03% | 28 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 109 | 95.0 | 56.4% | 1148 | 1.62% | 1464 | 2.06% |
| 20-29 | 100 | 58.7 | 30.6% | 622 | 0.6% | 793 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 8.4 | 4.3% | 87 | 0.11% | 116 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 7.9 | 3.2% | 65 | 0.1% | 79 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 5.6 | 2.4% | 49 | 0.07% | 63 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.2% | 24 | 0.04% | 37 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.0 | 0.9% | 19 | 0.04% | 23 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 258 | 181.6 | 100% | 2034 | 0.37% | 2603 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 11 2020 | 86250 | 1254034 | 6263 | 1197 | 9666 | 12269 |
| September 12 2020 | 87603 | 1264305 | 6309 | 1209 | 10474 | 12803 |
| September 13 2020 | 89185 | 1270458 | 6332 | 1210 | 11329 | 13848 |
| September 14 2020 | 89956 | 1273607 | 6350 | 1210 | 10602 | 14353 |
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| September 17 2020 | 94746 | 1304724 | 6522 | 1231 | 12986 | 16890 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 48 | 32.0 | 2.2% | 290 | 0.05% | 393 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 443 | 310.6 | 23.3% | 3029 | 0.4% | 3755 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 574 | 424.0 | 29.6% | 3843 | 0.51% | 4917 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 251 | 148.1 | 10.7% | 1385 | 0.18% | 1835 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 194 | 141.6 | 9.5% | 1228 | 0.18% | 1674 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 240 | 163.0 | 11.4% | 1485 | 0.18% | 2006 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 147 | 100.9 | 7.1% | 922 | 0.12% | 1249 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 137 | 89.1 | 6.2% | 804 | 0.13% | 1061 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 2034 | 1409.3 | 100% | 12986 | 0.22% | 16890 | 0.29% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.4 | 90.4 | 151.9 | 48.3 | 20 | 20% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 8.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74.6 | 190.9 | 204.4 | 96.6 | 21.3 | 32.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.6 | 206 | 76.3 | 181.6 | 98.9 | 14.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 49.6 | 65 | 1409.3 | 836.6 | 14.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-08 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1324"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges